The United Kingdom. From global empire to brexit

Closely connected to the opium wars, is of course, the rise and fall of the British Empire.

From the humble beginnings of the British East India Company, the international slave and opium trade. By the end of the 19th century, nearly 1/5th of the worlds population were under direct British rule.

Having successfully conned the Americans into thinking they had acheived independance from the British monarchy everything was looking stable.

Then the boar wars happened at the end of the 19th century and it was downhill all the way from there.

By the time 1914 arrived, distain for the British monarchy was being fostered globally, industrialisation was breading a whole new generation of wealth not controlled by the old families, and they really didn’t like being told how to live.

While the two world wars are often framed as a brave British battle to stop invading evil hoards charging on England.

In truth they were mostly a local rebellion against the worlds monarchies, and a vicious retalliation by those families desperate to cling on to power.

All this was kept from the English public, turned into a global war and pummeled disinformation by the BBC (stolen from its founders in 1927 by the British royals).

Which is where everything you know about the British role in world war two seems to stop being true.

I find it fascinating that The British Royals are/were actually a sub branch of the european mafia family known as the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. I find it far too much of a coincidence that the main palace of that mafia family is in Brussels, just accross the street from the European parliament building.

Worth considering the meaning of that, As England prepares for King Charles.

 

AGW, Global Warming. Probably all BS.

This has been a topic that pops up over and over again, it basically went away for a decade, mostly because everyone who was actually paying attention at the time realised they were really being lied to.

A long, long thread on one of the sites I used to frequent (now sadly passed away) I documented my efforts to recreate the science behind the “Man Made Global Warming” claims (before the hadley CRU debacle),  and how I went through the phases of skeptic, to “huh maybe they are right” to, “omg this is all BS”.

A recent push to claim “AGW is a real thing” inspired this post, everything I post is available to people who want to try it for themselves, I will assist anyone who wishes to do so. I’m not a climatologist, no one is funding this, it was a pet (Christmas) project, that went a bit to far. (although that will need me to update it to use the new, incredibly undecipherable temperature dataset, since the NOAA changed the file format from highly undecipherable format they were using when I made the graphs below, and for that you will have to pay me)

An anonymous poster on one of the comments sections really summed up my current feeling, I recreate that comment here in full, because it is really an excellent summary of my current feelings on the matter:

The only people I have seen deny climate change are the AGW idiots who think the climate has ever been stable, and who demand global action to try to put it into some sort of climatic stasis.
The rest of us have always accepted the SCIENTIFIC FACTS that:
(a) The Earth’s climate has always changed and always will.
(b) The Earth’s climate is EXTREMELY COMPLEX and cannot currently be accurately modeled in a computer.
(c) While humans, like EVERYTHING ELSE, have SOME effects on climate, there are plenty of other causes of change including many we probably do not know/understand. Some of these other sources, like the sun, have a far greater impact than humans.
(d) The Earth has been both significantly hotter and extremely cold many times in the past before there were enough humans to have had ANY effect on any of those previously very extreme changes.
We ALSO embrace things like the laws of economics, the record of human history, and accept basic human nature – so we:
(a) Believe humans will continue to advance technologically and thus we as a species become better able to deal with climate change with every passing decade, making it retrograde to go nuts trying to offset it now – even if we could, and if we could afford it, and if its happening.
(b) Know that far more people are dying today from other sources than from climate, and that reducing some of the deaths and suffering of people TODAY is achieved using some of those fossil fuels people like you want eliminated or made too expensive because YOU claim it will save some future persons from some imagined future horror.
(c) WE actually believe a pet theory should be PROVEN before we implement policies that have a negative impact on the lives of millions of people in the name of “solving” the supposed problem. In fact, we’d like to not only see the problem PROVEN to exist, but we also want to see that the proposed solution will actually work, will be the most cost-effective option, and will have the least impact upon the lives and liberty of the people who are alive today.
So… who are the REAL “deniers”? You guys need to drop the quasi-religious fervor-driven propaganda and start persuading with REAL SCIENCE and not with slogans, bitter accusations, suppression of persons with opposed opinions, rigging of the peer review and paper publishing business, data hiding, data manipulation, etc. Your side could make a tiny start by dropping the “denier” and “paid for by big oil” accusations and not hurling expletives like ornery pubescent teenagers.

I would add to that, that from the numbers I have seen, taking the assumption man is adding heat to the earth as true – this may very well be keeping us from entering another ice age – NO THANKS!!!

I’ll start my part with one of the most compelling graphs (the only one here not made by me) I ran into during those discussions that really hit a home run:

That is a graph, made by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationfrom 2006, that documents the sea level over the last few hundred thousand years, light yellow on the zoomed in lower graph are the ice ages.

My questions to AGW proponents

Why were sea levels 10 meters higher than they are now if this is the hottest we have ever been?

We are [hopefully still] coming out of an ice age, why are you in such a hurry to send us back into one?

___

How did I get here?

Well, back in 2007/2008 everyone around me was in an AGW frenzy, governments were slapping huge taxes on energy consumption, every week was some new story, that I personally had a very hard time believing in (NASA releasing pictures comparing like winter 1997 with summer 2007 getting posted by her majesties Big Black Cock media (BBC) really got my BS meter screaming), and saying “I’m not sure I believe it” was heresy, there’s zero debate they said.

So I broke the “AGW problem” into three steps.

  1. The earth is getting warmer
  2. We are causing the earth to get warmer
  3. The earth getting warmer is a problem that can and should be fixed.

->Can’t have three without one and two.

Well, I’ve a ton of data science under my belt, I don’t need to take anyones word for it that the earth is getting warmer, I can go to the data and see for myself. At the same time I was developing a load of financial analysis tools (made good money on the financial crash thanks to them, so in that sense you can say this research paid dividends, even though the graphs I am about to put here never made it out of the little bubble we were discussing them in)

I’ll skip the various revisions I went through, and just go straight to the end.

First, I downloaded the temperature global station readings dating back to 1877.

Next, I used a delauney tool to interpolate the temperatures between the stations, this has the benefit of minimising the rising temperatures from urbanisation, but in the end I don’t think I used this – too hard to get an average….

What I did instead was put all the stations into small “bins” by latitude, this gave me, for each month, the “average” temperature of a sliver of a latitude, (ring around the earth), this worked well and produces the (highly detailed) graph:

Here the vertical axis is latitude -> from -90 to 90 and the horizontal axis is month, one pixel wide for a month, one pixel high for 1 degree of latitude. red is hot, blue is cold, and green is no stations in the bin.

Notice how there is a lot of missing data at the poles early on, the temperatures at the poles have simply never been recorded, more on this later.

There is to much missing data there to really do much with, but we can make some assumptions to fill in the gaps. By treating each month as a single data set, we can fit a curve to the data to estimate the temperatures we dont have. That looks like this:

vertical axis is tenths of a degree (i.e. 100=10 degrees Celsius), horizontal axis is latitude

This gives us a near perfect dataset to work with.

This is the same format as the raw data, with one addition, the spots around the middle are the estimate of the sun azimuth (the latitude the sun is highest in the sky, the point on the curve where rate of change equals zero)

This then went through various stages that basically agreed with much of the “earth is getting warmer” hypothesis (the “huh maybe they are right” phase), until I got to that sun azimuth in more detail.

The northern hemisphere has more land than the southern hemisphere. Therefore when the sun is shining down on the northern hemisphere, global temperatures are hotter.

So after much effort to improve the results, I finally ended up with this graph

That is the change in latitude of the azimuth in the sun “predicted” by everything you just saw…..

i.e. the sun moved from -4 degrees south in 1877, to 1.5 degrees north in 2008.

Now, there are many ways to interpret this graph, maybe the earth really is wobbling, and that wobble is changing average temperatures, maybe the lack of temperature readings  at the poles is biasing the results (my preferred explanation), but the conclusion is clear to me at this point, the errors we have here are to big to measure tenths of a degree or even a degree change over 200 years, and any trend is never going to be statistically significant. And this is “the best data there is”, there are other data sources but they are even more unreliable and unproven than this.

So yeah, there is debate, Hadley CRU manipulating the data to hide the medieval warm period was a real thing, and scientists chasing grant money from the oil companies invested in alternative energy, and governments wanting more reasons to tax the hell out of everything we do have almost certainly corrupted this field to the point where the truth is indiscernible from the BS.

Since then, Australia had some fun, introducing, then abandoning carbon taxes, and all the corruption that went with them, and China ignored it all and catapulted itself to be the new world leader in everything.

WELL DONE.

n.b. I’ll trash any “he said, she said” comments, I don’t do herd mentality here. Science (on either side) or go home.

You can also pay me to take this post down.

 

 

Opium Wars

Let me take you back, way back into early modern British history, a boom time in what is now the scraps of the Royal empire. The British East India company, which received a Royal Charter from Queen Elizabeth I on 31 December 1600 intially making its money moving slaves to America is starting to make a mint shipping the “herbs and spices” known as opium and Heroin into China. It’s time to make this fledgling crown business into a modern industrial machine. But the royal coffers are a little short after the yanks declared their independance and stopped paying taxes into the house of gol gotha.

This story twists and turns and shapes the modern world in almost every way. Financially, economocally and militarily.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubble_Act

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Stock_Companies_Act_1844

After the war of independence (1783), UK bonds weren’t really in favour with the nations savers, so the blue blooded shape shifting lizards needed a new way of raising funds. So they turned to the various corn exchanges of London, using a crazy idea that would surely never work. Allow the sell off the rights to future company profits to a much wider audience, but keep the company in their hands. And so stocks were born, The British East India Company (BEIC) took industrialization to the seas. Conquered India and discovered the vast wild poppy fields off what is now known as Afghanistan.

Up until this point BEIC had been making most of its profits transporting slaves from Africa to the Americas.
This all changed in the winter of 1791, the process of British colonisation of Western Australia began when George Vancouver claimed the Albany region in the name of King George III. Providing a safe landing site for large shipments which could then be taken in smaller quantities to the Chinese mainland.

And so began over 200 years of.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

While the BEIC became defunct in 1874, in truth it would appear this was more a “re-nationalisation” of the opium trade.

Despite the “official” losses however, the production and trade of opium and heroin never went away, it just went underground, changing tactics from massive corporation to a strategy of divide and conquer.

It’s worth noting during this period, that while the relative importance of the Opium and the Herion supply chain fell dramatically, with the inevitable shift in power that came with it, the absolute wealth associated with it changed little, and both the British and French still relied heavily on it to feed the financial power of those exempt from the law. Rather, the relative, rapid and all encompassing rise of the importance of crude oil on the geopolitical stage (Both Opium and Crude only function with international trade) empowered and catapulted “new money” onto the world stage.

This may be now coming to a crashing end.

In 2001, a vast new craze sweeps Afghanistan, The Taliban, These guys, among other, less interesting things, like wishing to provide education, albeit religious, have one real hatred. Opium.
According to the UN opium survey, despite decades of Western “attempts” to “crush” the drugs trade, opium production in Afghanistan falls off a cliff, down 90% country wide. Helmand Province, once Afghanistan’s finest, most productive Opium fields has the largest collapse, with not a single notable cultivation.

And so the US and UK “went in” in October 2001. (Using a little black flag implying the Afghans had something to do with 9-11)

In an entirely unrelated story, 14 years later…….

I think, at this point, it’s worth taking a moment to think of the victims of these wars, Russia and China seem deafeningly silent on the matter (for now at least), save a few.

But its seems they are actually fighting – and winning this war now. Syria just so happens to be part of the key land route into their countries, and, imho these “oil tankers”:

->Probably not full of the “oil” that runs cars…

There are 2.5 million drug addicts and more than 5.1 million drug users in Russia, according to the report by the International Narcotics Control Board. These figures have nearly doubled since 2002.

Nearly 90% of all drug addicts in Russia use opiates, and primarily heroin, which is produced entirely in Afghanistan. There are an estimated 1.68 million opiate users in Russia. (Source)

That isn’t a few smugglers sneaking accross the border with condoms full of drugs up their bum.

I think this brings the opium wars to the current day, The US and UK “special relationship” on the one side, Russia, China and the Non-aligned movement on the other.

In my opinion, “we” are, and always have been, on the wrong side.

 

Getting Started

It’s been a few years now I’ve been commenting and watching the financial system and global economy from just on the periphery between the prophet’s of industry and normal people. After a continual mix of either being banned from sites that focus on such commentary (housepricecrash.co.uk, abovetopsecret.com, greenenergyinvestors.com, digitalspy.com) or sites getting shut down (globalhousepricecrash.com, creditcrunch.co.uk) I decided it was probably best to post where those who dont like what i have to say need to try a little harder to marginalise my opinions.

I’ll rescue what i can from the great but now deceased sites (for example the newspeak dictionary already posted).

Newspeak

we must not get left behind = we must not let everyone else catch up
“no one knows” aka “DONT PANIC”=”Its far, far to bad to tell you”
corporate bonds are attractive = corporate borrowing being very expensive
financial meltdown = a failure in SWITCH/AMEX//VISA/BACS/SWIFT etc
credit crunch:- banker getting squished by a train….. or “bad things”
technicality or loophole = contract fairness
oil subsidies = not taxing the hell out of oil
leverage/gearing = FRB
“Help improve liquidity” = “Give us free money”
Volatile/volatility = totally screwed
“No Comment” = yes, but its a secret.
Is now the time to ____ = No
Do do it = weve taken our pound of flesh, please help us unwind our position
Dont do it = youll make more money than we want you to have.
battlefield shaping = burn the fuck out of anything that moves
Investment = spending
Its the right thing to do = we got it completely wrong
terrorist = someone who doesnt agree with the people in control, and is willing to do something about it.
hero = state sponsored terrorist (n.b. to get past this, you have to realise that not all terrorism is wrong, and this is in the context of newspeak)
BBC = UKs state television channel
Fine = A Tax on Stupid People.
Nationalisation = state sanctioned theft
British interests = remnants of the British Empire
right wing = survival of the fittest (steal from the poor, and give to the wealthy)
center (political) = willing to choose between the two options
left wing = no man left behind (steal from the wealthy and give to the poor)
short = a bet that something is to expensive
long = a bet that something is to cheap
bear = someone who is short
bull = someone who is long
advertisement = a signal that something is not being socially recommended
interest rate = the level of rent of property charged by its ultimate owner
owner = the person with the final say over property
Public = the people with control over J6P
J6P = Joe six Pack, aka sheeple
poor = someone with no property
rich = someone with money to burn
wealthy = someone with access to high quality property
property = something which rent can be charged against
rent = the money flows from property
arbitrage = going short on something with a low rent in order to go long on something with a high rent.
complex = I havent got a clue if what Im saying is right or not, but they paid me to say it.
basically = Im bored with explaining this to you, you fucking idiot.
confident = its probably not going work, because all I have is words
state = property owned by the public (see above)
“The going gets tough” = the end of the ponzi scheme
price above fundamental value+paid rampers = some sort of scam
“What I meant was” = “youve caught me out on something I previously said”.
Zimbabwe worker strike = an EU wide ban on technical assistance
protectionism = state aid
“consider the full range of options” = we dont know what we are going to do, but will leak some ideas and if one gets a positive reaction…
Monitor = do nothing
excluding exceptional items = “If you ignore all the losses”
kettled = Making protesters boil so you can justify kicking the shit out of them.
prices holding up = prices are falling more slowly.
social distancing measures = Martial Law.
Moderate = Friendly to the British Elite.
Extremist = opposed to the British Elite.
“It also calls for individuals to be given the power to help themselves and others in their community” = “Youll have to look after yourself, because all the money you handed over in tax is being given to the bankers”.
Credit Easing = Default Erasure.
“Gadaffi Bombing” = “Bombing Civilians loyal to Gadaffi”
“partisan intervention”=”Interference by the Crown/Queen”
“Global “Economics” article that doesnt mention China” = “Lies”
“establish a no-fly zone ” = “wipe out half the population of several cities”
“anarchist” = “People we dont want you to associate yourselves with”. (see “dont do it” above)
Angry = stupid
“independence” = “Control by the financial oligarchy”.
“fragile” = “Broken in the future”
tactical voting = Voting for a party you dont approve of, to spite a party you dont approve of. Invented to ensure the ConLabourers can keep conning the labourers.
“scuffles broke out” = “Police launched an unprovoked attack”
“escalated” = “people refused to submit to authoritarian twats”
“dispersed” = “broken up”
“broken up” = “beaten up”
“unexpected” = “utterly predictable”
“national security” = “The right of the head of state to fuck anything that moves”, (and probably a few animals that have stopped moving, necrophilia would be a serious national security issue)
opposition = a small band of terrorists supported by the media organisation reporting on them.
officially recognised = The decision that it is now politically acceptable to openly rather than secretly support the terrrorists in question.
“politically acceptable” = “unlikely to cause wide scale civil disobedience.”
“riot” = “civil disobedience where the head of state is financially liable for any damage done.”
“Political Correctness” = “silencing of certain political views by a monarchy.”
“leak” = “a truth they need to call a lie.”